Every premium and members-only resource for $9.99/month, as a no-commitment subscription. See the plans

PalateKit

Sign in
Menu

Request a resource

Describe the resource you are missing in one sentence. We will email you when it is published.

0 / 280

A page, a video or an image online.

Unlock PalateKit

Unlock everything

Plan

Paying means accepting our terms of sale.

Secure payment by Stripe. Receipts and invoices sent by email.

Welcome back

Sign in to install, download or save this resource. A free account is enough for free resources.

Deciding under uncertainty: thinking in bets v1.0.0

Use this resource to make uncertain decisions by framing them as bets

New

  • 349 downloads
  • 134 likes
  • 145 saves

Free

Install with the CLI

In a terminal, from the folder you want:

npx --yes palatekit@latest install decision-quality-under-uncertainty

With no option, the skill goes to ~/.agents/skills/; add --agent claude-code (or codex, cursor…) to target an agent.

First time: connect the CLI with

npx --yes palatekit@latest login

The agent helps you frame decisions as bets, with their probabilities and reasoning, then evaluates them on process rather than outcome alone. You get explicit decisions that are easier to revisit.

Mostly picked by

Updated November 2, 2026

Card for the “Deciding under uncertainty: thinking in bets” skill

Details

Works in
Install guides
Generates with
Your agent's model
Licence
MIT

Similar resources

View all

What you get

  • SKILL.md: framework overview, decision quality and outcome
  • SKILL.md: when to apply it and when not to

Good fit for

  • You must settle an uncertain decision with partial data
  • A good past decision went badly and you want to learn from it

Not for

    Tags

    • decision
    • uncertainty
    • probabilities
    • process

    About

    You say

    “Frame our decision to hire before raising funds as a bet.”

    Card for the “Deciding under uncertainty: thinking in bets” skill

    Skill published by pmprompt under the MIT license, delivered in its original version.

    Show more

    How to use it

    1. Install the skill in your agent's skills folder
    2. Ask your agent to make uncertain decisions by framing them as bets
    3. Review and adjust the result

    Content preview

    Files

    • LICENSE1 KB
    • NOTICE-PALATEKIT.md0.5 KB
    • SKILL.md2.3 KB

    Origin and licence

    Listed unmodified

    Author
    pmprompt
    Source
    github.com/pmprompt/claude-plugin-product-management/tree/9b9a4929de8ce23617719402b43fe3e75be23c02/skills/thinking-in-bets
    Licence
    MIT

    Notice

    « thinking-in-bets » (pmprompt, MIT) livré dans sa version d'origine : fiche en français et en anglais par PalateKit.

    User reviews

    –

    No ratings yet

    Loading reviews…

    Delete your review?

    Your rating and comment will be removed from the page.