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Knowledge wiki setup
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- Claude Code
- Codex
- Cursor
- and 3 more
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Use this resource to estimate a timeline, cost or risk with ranges rather than a single number
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In a terminal, from the folder you want:
npx --yes palatekit@latest install probabilistic-estimation-rangesWith no option, the skill goes to ~/.agents/skills/; add --agent claude-code (or codex, cursor…) to target an agent.
First time: connect the CLI with
npx --yes palatekit@latest loginThe agent starts from a base rate, expresses its assumptions as ranges and updates the estimate when evidence arrives. Unknowns are bounded by order of magnitude, without false precision.
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Updated November 2, 2026
You say
“How long will it take to migrate this database? Give me a range, not a single figure.”

Skill published by tjboudreaux under the MIT license, delivered in its original version.
Listed unmodified
« thinking-probabilistic » (tjboudreaux, MIT) livré dans sa version d'origine : fiche en français et en anglais par PalateKit.
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